Mulya.ai
Ticker
VLO
Scenario
Key Inputs
Revenue est.?Analyst
OP margin est.?hist_ind
Reinvestment est.?projected
R&D capitalizedNo
Leases factoredNo
Key Assumptions
WACC ?7.4%
ERP ?4.5%
Risk-free rate ?4.1%
Beta (blended) ?0.734
Beta (levered) ?0.798
Terminal OM% ?2.8%
Segment conc. ?92% dominant
Terminal growth ?4.1%
Bond rating ?A+ · 1.00%
ROIC option ?Opt 1 · 8.6%
Prob of failure ?0.0%
Pipeline validated · 2026-05-17

VLO · Valero Energy Corporation

$244.092026-05-17
Sector: Energy; Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing; Sub-Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Intrinsic Value Range Comparison · Mulya.ai

Bull
$167
-31.7% vs market
Base · active
$87
-64.4% vs market
Bear
$83
-66.0% vs market
Mulya.ai vs Analyst IV Comparison?
Bear $83
Base $87
Bull $167
Median $195
Market $244
Market Price $244
Mulya.ai Base $87
Analysts Median $195
Mulya.ai IV range ($83 · $167)
Analysts Range ($169 · $220)
Fundamentals · historical + forward · base
italics = DCF projection
PeriodRevenueRev Gr ?Ops M% ?Tax Rate ?NOPAT ?
Reinvest ?
FCFF ?WACC% ?PV FCFF ?ROIC ?Inv. Cap ?EPS ?P/E
2021.Q4$114.0B1.9%16.5%$1.8B$2.9B$4.7B5.9%6.2%$28.5B$3.07
2022.Q4$176.4B54.8%8.9%22.4%$12.2B−$731MM$11.4B7.1%41.2%$30.6B$38.05
2023.Q4$144.8B-17.9%8.2%22.3%$9.2B−$407MM$8.8B6.9%29.1%$32.8B$29.16
2024.Q4$129.9B-10.3%2.9%18.7%$3.1B$2.3B$5.3B7.6%9.6%$30.7B$9.14
2025.Q4$124.0B-4.5%2.6%25.3%$2.4B$2.8B$5.2B7.5%8.2%$27.6B$7.7523.3
italics below = DCF projection · 10yr Rev CAGR: 4.8%
2026.Q4$117.7B+-5.1%2.6%24.7%$2.3B$0MM$2.3B7.5%$2.1B8.2%$27.6B$7.5032.5
2027.Q4$115.3B+-2.0%2.6%24.2%$2.3B$0MM$2.3B7.6%$2.0B8.3%$27.6B$7.5432.4
2028.Q4$113.7B+-1.4%2.7%23.7%$2.3B$0MM$2.3B7.7%$1.9B8.4%$27.6B$7.6232.0
2029.Q4$150.6B+32.4%2.7%23.1%$3.1B−$11.5B−$8.4B7.8%−$6.3B9.4%$39.1B$10.3523.6
2030.Q4$158.5B+5.3%2.8%22.6%$3.4B−$2.4B$1.0B8.0%$711MM8.6%$41.5B$11.3721.5
Term. Yr+$206.2B4.1%2.8%20.0%$4.6B−$2.2B$2.4B8.6%$25.0B8.6%
Active scenario IV: $87 (-64.4% vs market)