Mulya.ai
Ticker
MRNA
Scenario
Key Inputs
Revenue est.?Analyst
OP margin est.?Analyst
Reinvestment est.?projected
R&D capitalizedNo
Leases factoredYes
Key Assumptions
WACC ?9.0%
ERP ?4.5%
Risk-free rate ?4.1%
Beta (blended) ?0.945
Beta (levered) ?1.006
Terminal OM% ?-8082.3%
Segment conc. ?100% dominant
Terminal growth ?4.1%
Bond rating ?CCC · 9.18%
ROIC option ?Opt 1 · 8.6%
Prob of failure ?20.0%
Pipeline validated · 2026-05-17

MRNA · Moderna, Inc.

$49.202026-05-17
Sector: Healthcare; Industry: Biotechnology; Sub-Industry: Biotechnology

Intrinsic Value Range Comparison · Mulya.ai

Leases factored
Bull
$0
-32583.8% vs market
Base · active
$0
-31493.2% vs market
Bear
$0
-1593.4% vs market
Mulya.ai vs Analyst IV Comparison?
Bear $-735
Base $-15445
Bull $-15982
Median $35
Market $49
Market Price $49
Mulya.ai Base $-15445
Analysts Median $35
Mulya.ai IV range ($-735 · $-15982)
Analysts Range ($17 · $63)
Fundamentals · historical + forward · base
italics = DCF projection
PeriodRevenueRev Gr ?Ops M% ?Tax Rate ?NOPAT ?
Reinvest ?
FCFF ?WACC% ?PV FCFF ?ROIC ?Inv. Cap ?EPS ?P/E
2021.Q4$17.7B73.6%8.2%$12.0B$3.1B$15.1B9.5%679.7%$1.8B$31.13
2022.Q4$18.9B6.4%49.0%12.7%$8.1B−$2.2B$5.9B10.1%163.8%$8.1B$21.33
2023.Q4$6.8B-63.7%-61.9%0.0%−$5.1B−$905MM−$6.0B9.7%-72.6%$5.9B$-12.03
2024.Q4$3.2B-53.3%-123.3%1.3%−$3.9B$321MM−$3.6B10.3%-75.4%$4.5B$-9.08
2025.Q4$1.9B-39.3%-155.2%0.0%−$3.1B−$283MM−$3.4B10.4%-68.4%$4.5B$-7.20
italics below = DCF projection · 10yr Rev CAGR: 21.4%
2026.Q4$2.1B+6.8%-8126.0%2.0%−$165.3B−$246MM−$165.6B8.9%−$152.0B-3556.6%$4.8B$-1.37
2027.Q4$2.5B+20.5%-8126.0%4.0%−$195.2B−$846MM−$196.0B8.9%−$165.2B-3757.9%$5.6B$-1.62
2028.Q4$3.2B+26.0%-8126.0%6.0%−$240.8B−$1.4B−$242.1B8.9%−$187.4B-3813.6%$7.0B$-2.00
2029.Q4$5.0B+59.0%-8126.0%8.0%−$374.7B−$1.0B−$375.7B8.8%−$267.2B-4980.3%$8.0B$-3.11
2030.Q4$6.6B+32.5%-8126.0%10.0%−$485.8B−$788MM−$486.6B8.8%−$318.0B-5762.2%$8.8B$-4.03
Term. Yr+$14.0B4.1%-8082.3%20.0%−$906.8B$432.3B−$474.5B8.6%−$4541.3B8.6%
Active scenario IV: $0 (-31493.2% vs market)