Mulya.ai
Ticker
MPC
Scenario
Key Inputs
Revenue est.?Analysttaper yr2
OP margin est.?hist_ind
Reinvestment est.?projected
R&D capitalizedNo
Leases factoredNo
Key Assumptions
WACC ?6.9%
ERP ?4.5%
Risk-free rate ?4.1%
Beta (blended) ?0.577
Beta (levered) ?0.799
Terminal OM% ?2.8%
Segment conc. ?94% dominant
Terminal growth ?4.1%
Bond rating ?A · 1.20%
ROIC option ?Opt 1 · 8.6%
Prob of failure ?0.0%
Pipeline validated · 2026-05-17

MPC · Marathon Petroleum Corporation

$241.732026-05-17
Sector: Energy; Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing; Sub-Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Intrinsic Value Range Comparison · Mulya.ai

Bull
$100
-58.7% vs market
Base · active
$18
-92.8% vs market
Bear
$30
-87.4% vs market
Mulya.ai vs Analyst IV Comparison?
Base $18
Bear $30
Bull $100
Median $203
Market $242
Market Price $242
Mulya.ai Base $18
Analysts Median $203
Mulya.ai IV range ($30 · $100)
Analysts Range ($174 · $225)
Fundamentals · historical + forward · base
italics = DCF projection
PeriodRevenueRev Gr ?Ops M% ?Tax Rate ?NOPAT ?
Reinvest ?
FCFF ?WACC% ?PV FCFF ?ROIC ?Inv. Cap ?EPS ?P/E
2021.Q4$120.0B3.6%9.4%$3.9B$2.8B$6.7B5.1%9.4%$41.3B$32.57
2022.Q4$177.5B47.9%12.1%21.9%$16.8B−$737MM$16.0B6.3%39.7%$43.0B$48.55
2023.Q4$148.4B-16.4%8.5%20.1%$10.1B$1.3B$11.4B6.2%23.7%$41.9B$32.38
2024.Q4$138.9B-6.4%3.8%14.9%$4.5B$6MM$4.5B7.0%10.6%$42.4B$11.52
2025.Q4$133.0B-4.2%4.9%16.2%$5.5B−$5.7B−$146MM6.8%12.4%$46.4B$13.5411.0
italics below = DCF projection · 10yr Rev CAGR: 4.9%
2026.Q4$135.9B+2.2%5.0%16.6%$5.6B−$1.1B$4.5B7.1%$4.2B11.9%$47.5B$18.7512.9
2027.Q4$139.2B+2.4%4.5%17.0%$5.2B−$1.2B$4.0B7.2%$3.5B10.8%$48.7B$17.4713.8
2028.Q4$142.9B+2.6%4.1%17.4%$4.8B−$1.3B$3.5B7.4%$2.9B9.8%$50.0B$16.1615.0
2029.Q4$170.1B+19.0%3.7%17.7%$5.1B−$15.4B−$10.3B7.5%−$7.7B8.9%$65.4B$17.1514.1
2030.Q4$178.8B+5.1%2.8%18.1%$4.1B−$4.6B−$448MM7.7%−$313MM6.1%$70.0B$13.7617.6
Term. Yr+$223.0B4.1%2.8%20.0%$5.0B−$2.4B$2.6B8.6%$27.6B8.6%
Active scenario IV: $18 (-92.8% vs market)