Mulya.ai
Ticker
EXPD
Scenario
Key Inputs
Revenue est.?Analysttaper yr2
OP margin est.?Analyst
Reinvestment est.?avg_lt_ttm
R&D capitalizedNo
Leases factoredYes
Key Assumptions
WACC ?8.7%
ERP ?4.5%
Risk-free rate ?4.1%
Beta (blended) ?1.047
Beta (levered) ?1.051
Terminal OM% ?8.6%
Segment conc. ?39% dominant
Terminal growth ?4.1%
Bond rating ?AAA · 0.60%
ROIC option ?Opt 4 · 23.6%
Prob of failure ?0.0%
Pipeline validated · 2026-07-21

EXPD · Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.

$160.732026-07-21
Sector: Industrials; Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics; Sub-Industry: Air Freight & Logistics

Intrinsic Value Range Comparison · Mulya.ai

Leases factored
Bull
$139
-13.7% vs market
Base · active
$125
-22.1% vs market
Bear
$123
-23.7% vs market
Mulya.ai vs Analyst IV Comparison?
Bear $123
Base $125
Bull $139
Median $153
Market $161
Market Price $161
Mulya.ai Base $125
Analysts Median $153
Mulya.ai IV range ($123 · $139)
Analysts Range ($142 · $175)
Fundamentals · historical + forward · base
italics = DCF projection
PeriodRevenueRev Gr ?Ops M% ?Tax Rate ?NOPAT ?
Reinvest ?
FCFF ?WACC% ?PV FCFF ?ROIC ?Inv. Cap ?EPS ?P/E
2024.Q1$9.3B10.4%26.5%$713MM−$448MM$265MM8.6%52.7%$1.4B$5.62
2024.Q4$9.3B0.0%10.4%25.9%$720MM−$616MM$104MM9.3%48.6%$1.6B$5.62
2025.Q1$10.6B14.0%10.1%25.7%$799MM−$611MM$188MM9.2%50.6%$1.6B$6.04
2025.Q4$10.6B0.0%10.1%25.8%$798MM−$418MM$381MM9.3%43.9%$2.1B$6.04
2026.Q1$11.2B5.5%10.0%25.5%$832MM−$490MM$342MM8.9%45.5%$1.6B$6.2419.3
italics below = DCF projection · 10yr Rev CAGR: 4.5%
2027.Q1$11.7B+4.9%9.9%24.9%$868MM−$79MM$789MM8.7%$726MM53.8%$1.7B$6.2725.6
2028.Q1$12.3B+4.8%9.9%24.4%$916MM−$83MM$833MM8.7%$705MM54.1%$1.7B$6.6224.3
2029.Q1$12.9B+4.7%9.9%23.8%$966MM−$88MM$879MM8.7%$685MM54.3%$1.8B$6.9823.0
2030.Q1$13.5B+4.6%9.9%23.3%$1.0B−$93MM$926MM8.7%$664MM54.5%$1.9B$7.3621.8
2031.Q1$14.1B+4.5%9.9%22.7%$1.1B−$98MM$974MM8.7%$643MM54.5%$2.0B$7.7420.8
Term. Yr+$18.1B4.1%8.6%20.0%$1.2B−$216MM$1.0B8.6%$10.0B23.6%
Active scenario IV: $125 (-22.1% vs market)