Mulya.ai
Ticker
ERIE
Scenario
Key Inputs
Revenue est.?Analyst
OP margin est.?hist_ind
Reinvestment est.?projected
R&D capitalizedNo
Leases factoredNo
Key Assumptions
WACC ?5.9%
ERP ?4.5%
Risk-free rate ?4.1%
Beta (blended) ?0.411
Beta (levered) ?0.411
Terminal OM% ?18.4%
Segment conc. ?99% dominant
Terminal growth ?4.1%
Bond rating ?AAA · 0.60%
ROIC option ?Opt 4 · 23.6%
Prob of failure ?0.0%
Pipeline validated · 2026-05-17

ERIE · Erie Indemnity Company

$249.512026-05-17
Sector: Financial Services; Industry: Insurance - Brokers; Sub-Industry: Insurance Brokers

Intrinsic Value Range Comparison · Mulya.ai

Bull
$511
+105.0% vs market
Base · active
$306
+22.8% vs market
Bear
$271
+8.7% vs market
Mulya.ai vs Analyst IV Comparison?
Market $250
Bear $271
Base $306
Bull $511
Market Price $250
Mulya.ai Base $306
Analysts Median —
Mulya.ai IV range ($271 · $511)
Analysts Range —
Fundamentals · historical + forward · base
italics = DCF projection
PeriodRevenueRev Gr ?Ops M% ?Tax Rate ?NOPAT ?
Reinvest ?
FCFF ?WACC% ?PV FCFF ?ROIC ?Inv. Cap ?EPS ?P/E
2021.Q4$2.6B12.1%20.9%$252MM$258MM$510MM4.0%20.7%$1.2B$5.65
2022.Q4$2.8B7.8%13.2%20.7%$298MM−$102MM$197MM5.8%23.9%$1.3B$5.67
2023.Q4$3.3B15.1%15.9%20.6%$413MM−$187MM$225MM5.6%30.4%$1.4B$8.47
2024.Q4$3.8B16.1%17.8%20.7%$536MM−$186MM$351MM6.3%34.5%$1.7B$11.39
2025.Q4$4.3B13.4%16.7%21.3%$566MM$196MM$762MM6.1%31.6%$1.9B$10.6218.3
italics below = DCF projection · 10yr Rev CAGR: 5.5%
2026.Q4$4.6B+6.9%16.7%21.2%$605MM−$35MM$571MM6.2%$537MM31.6%$1.9B$11.4921.7
2027.Q4$4.9B+6.6%17.0%21.0%$660MM−$39MM$621MM6.4%$550MM33.8%$2.0B$12.5319.9
2028.Q4$5.2B+6.3%17.4%20.9%$717MM−$43MM$674MM6.7%$559MM36.0%$2.0B$13.6218.3
2029.Q4$5.5B+6.0%17.7%20.8%$777MM−$49MM$729MM6.9%$565MM38.1%$2.1B$14.7516.9
2030.Q4$5.9B+5.8%18.4%20.6%$856MM−$55MM$801MM7.2%$580MM40.9%$2.1B$16.2415.4
Term. Yr+$7.7B4.1%18.4%20.0%$1.1B−$197MM$937MM8.6%$10.3B23.6%
Active scenario IV: $306 (+22.8% vs market)