Mulya.ai
Ticker
DLTR
Scenario
Key Inputs
Revenue est.?Analysttaper yr5
OP margin est.?Analyst
Reinvestment est.?projected
R&D capitalizedNo
Leases factoredNo
Key Assumptions
WACC ?7.2%
ERP ?4.5%
Risk-free rate ?4.1%
Beta (blended) ?0.692
Beta (levered) ?0.804
Terminal OM% ?6.1%
Segment conc. ?100% dominant
Terminal growth ?4.1%
Bond rating ?AAA · 0.60%
ROIC option ?Opt 3 · 8.9%
Prob of failure ?0.0%
Pipeline validated · 2026-05-17

DLTR · Dollar Tree, Inc.

$108.442026-05-17
Sector: Consumer Defensive; Industry: Discount Stores; Sub-Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail

Intrinsic Value Range Comparison · Mulya.ai

Bull
$115
+5.9% vs market
Base · active
$45
-58.4% vs market
Bear
$47
-56.4% vs market
Mulya.ai vs Analyst IV Comparison?
Base $45
Bear $47
Market $108
Bull $115
Median $133
Market Price $108
Mulya.ai Base $45
Analysts Median $133
Mulya.ai IV range ($47 · $115)
Analysts Range ($75 · $165)
Fundamentals · historical + forward · base
italics = DCF projection
PeriodRevenueRev Gr ?Ops M% ?Tax Rate ?NOPAT ?
Reinvest ?
FCFF ?WACC% ?PV FCFF ?ROIC ?Inv. Cap ?EPS ?P/E
2021.Q4$26.3B6.9%18.6%$1.5B−$1.0B$434MM5.6%12.7%$11.6B$6.65
2022.Q4$15.4B-41.4%13.6%23.5%$1.6B−$1.6B$55MM6.8%13.1%$13.0B$8.09
2023.Q4$16.8B8.9%10.6%0.0%$1.8B−$814MM$978MM8.3%14.8%$11.2B$-5.00
2024.Q4$17.6B4.8%8.3%24.9%$1.1B−$485MM$614MM7.3%12.0%$7.1B$-15.17
2025.Q4$19.4B10.4%8.2%24.8%$1.2B−$256MM$945MM7.2%16.3%$7.7B$6.4213.6
italics below = DCF projection · 10yr Rev CAGR: 4.6%
2026.Q4$19.4B+0.0%9.6%24.3%$1.4B−$345MM$1.1B7.3%$988MM17.9%$8.0B$7.0315.4
2027.Q4$20.6B+6.3%9.6%23.8%$1.5B−$1.4B$87MM7.4%$76MM17.2%$9.4B$7.5214.4
2028.Q4$21.8B+5.9%9.6%23.4%$1.6B−$714MM$886MM7.6%$715MM16.4%$10.1B$8.0113.5
2029.Q4$23.1B+5.7%9.6%22.9%$1.7B−$1.8B−$53MM7.7%−$39MM15.5%$11.9B$8.5212.7
2030.Q4$24.4B+5.5%9.6%22.4%$1.8B−$1.4B$383MM7.8%$266MM14.3%$13.3B$9.0412.0
Term. Yr+$31.8B4.1%6.1%20.0%$1.5B−$710MM$837MM8.6%$8.7B8.9%
Active scenario IV: $45 (-58.4% vs market)